Second in popularity to straight bets on the pointspread, betting NFL totals makes up a…Read More
How to Bet On Sports- Betting NFL Win Totals
There are any number of NFL betting options at the online sportsbook this time of the year when it comes to futures and props. Picking a Super Bowl winner in July can be a bit tricky. However, when it comes to betting on a team’s projected win total well in advance of the start of a new season there is some decent value to be found in the betting odds if you know how and where to look.
The projected win totals for all 32 teams were released earlier this year in conjunction with the release of each team’s regular season schedule. Every fan and every bettor has probably caught themselves penciling in wins and losses for a particular team across its entire 16-game run. That is one way to come up with an OVER/UNDER play for a NFL team, but too much of the rational for those individual wins and losses is biased because of last year’s results.
What happened in 2017 will have some impact on what happens this upcoming season, but each new season there are always going to be examples of teams easily exceeding a projected win total as well as coming up way short on some lofty expectations.
There are several factors that could change a team’s fortunes from one season to the next. The starting point is analyzing the players it lost in free agency verse the players it may have added to the roster. I like to look for teams that did a good job at signing the free agents on their own team. Stability on the roster from one season to the next tends to lend itself to stability in the win/loss column. The draft can have some impact, but as a general rule, I would not put too much weight on these additions.
Anytime you have a team that is going with a new quarterback as its starter, there could be shift in betting value one way or the other. Minnesota won 13 games last season with Case Keenum under center. In an effort to upgrade that position, the Vikings went out and signed Kirk Cousins to a fat, new contract. Most online sportsbooks have their projected win total for 2018 at 10.5 with the current moneyline odds favoring the UNDER at -140. I tend to agree with that assessment in what could be a big step backwards if Cousins does not pan out as planned.
At the other side of this example is Keenum taking over the starting role at quarterback with the Denver Broncos. Their projected win total is 7.5 with the odds favoring the UNDER at -140. This is a team that is just three seasons removed from winning the Super Bowl, so I actually love the value in the +120 odds for the OVER in this prop.
Major injuries are another factor from one season to the next when it comes to finding value in the OVER/UNDER win total odds. The Houston Texans slipped to 4-12 last season when they lost quarterback Deshaun Watson and linebacker JJ Watt to injury. Each player should be back in the starting lineup in Week 1 when the Texans take aim at exceeding its 9.5-game win total. The betting odds favor the UNDER at -180, but if both of those players can return to form and stay healthy for all 16 games, it would add quite a bit of value to the +160 odds for the OVER.
Green Bay is in the same situation after losing its quarterback Aaron Rodgers for most of the 2017 season. The result was a losing 7-9 record. The Packers’ projected wins for this season are set at 10.5 with the current odds favoring the UNDER at -190. Rodgers is the type of player that can single-handedly win a few games his team appeared destined to lose. To me, that adds quite a bit of value to the +165 odds that Green Bay wins at least 11 games this season.
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